Bond Market After a Lost Decade Lessons for Investors

[0:00] Dano: Happy Friday, October 9th, 2026. It's time to go on the Markets with Fermata Advisors and our private wealth arm, Sonoma Wealth Advisors. My name is Dan O'Weir, joined shortly by our managing principal, Chris Sipes. Today we're asking the question, did bonds hit a bottom? Bonds, supposedly the safe part of your portfolio, that's how they're historically looked upon over the past decade, depending on when you got in, it's been anything but. So we're going to be looking at rolling 10-year returns and asking the question, did they just hit a bottom one? But also, this lost decade that they're in, how does this stretch compare to every other decade going back to the 1930s? And what higher bond yields today could mean for investors who rely on their portfolio income? And finally, stock valuations are close to their 1999 highs, a lot of similarities there. What could the pattern of bonds be telling us about? Other asset classes. Let's go on the Markets.

[1:01] Announcer: The stock market, the economy, your money. What's the latest and what could be next? Find out now with Fermata On The Markets. Straightforward financial market updates for the brands of Fermata Advisors, Sonoma Wealth Advisors, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax. On the Markets starts now.

[1:32] Dano: As I said, I'm Dan O'Weir, I'm the marketing director of the firm, joined by our managing principal, Chris Sipes. Darren Blonsky, managing principal on assignment this week. Chris, we're asking the question, did bonds hit a bottom? And we're looking at lifetime taxes first.

[1:47] Chris: Yeah, two very exciting and fun topics to talk about, bonds and taxes. But this, I thought it was kind of interesting, the lifetime taxes. So what this is... Based on is if you were earning the average salary in each state and you did that over a 45-year working life. And so the darker red is the higher taxes, a lot of the East Coast, California, Minnesota. And then the lighter color is where you'd pay less in taxes over time. Happy to see Ohio on there being. Being from that state in Texas, Florida, on the lighter side, South Dakota. Interesting that a lot of those states have no state income tax. And I think there are not a lot of people, but there are some people that say when they're going into retirement, take this into account when they're deciding where they're going to live in retirement, especially for us in California with Nevada right over the border. With no income tax, state income tax, it can make a difference, you know, especially for folks that have, you know, pensions and such that their income's higher than might otherwise expect.

[3:11] Dano: You always find a way to shout out Ohio, especially when your baseball team's in the playoffs. So nice work there, Chris.

[3:17] Chris: Yes, we live to die another day.

[3:21] Dano: I did want to give you a heads up. If you're catching our live stream today, whether it's on LinkedIn, YouTube, our Instagram, whether it's on Twitter, X, this is a live show on Friday afternoons. So if you're catching the live broadcast, feel free to interact. Feel free to comment. Feel free to ask us a question as we're flipping through slides here. If you see something, if you have a reaction, or if you have a question, you want to see what Chris's opinion is on something. If you ask it live on the show, we will do our best to answer it live on the show.

[3:54] Chris: So a couple of things on the sentiment front, Dan. We got the consumer sentiment survey from the University Of Michigan today. Again, it was kind of down in the dumps, but that's been off for quite a while. So not really a surprise to the market. But then you've got the sentiment on the investor side of things. We've got a... A little bit of a bullish tilt this week in the AAII sentiment indicators at 40%. CNN fear and greed is at 44, which is technically fear, but it's like right on the border of fear and neutral. So almost into the neutral zone, which is up from 39 fear last week. And then we've got Bitcoin at 59 greed, which is down slightly from 72. It's been kind of bouncing in that mid to upper 80s range for... For several weeks now. And so, you know, a little bit of return to greed on the Bitcoin side of things after a very long time in the extreme fear zone when the prices were down. So what we don't have with these sentiment indicators is bond sentiment. And that's probably a good thing at the moment.

[5:10] Chris: Although what's interesting is that while sentiment is probably low on bonds because they've been struggling again this year, from the flow standpoint, there are investors kind of flooding into bonds despite the fact that they've been been struggling this year. So when you look at the flows into some of the common ETFs, investors have been rebalancing into the bond funds. And this may be one of the reasons why, which is here from JP Morgan, they're showing the long-term both what they call nominal yields. So that's when you don't take into account the inflation rate. And then you've got the real yields in gray. So the nominals are in blue and the real yields are in gray. And you can see we're kind of getting closer, especially on the nominal side of things, back to more of an average. And I think the way you can think about this is when those yields got so low back in 2021, 2020 and 2021, that was bonds being priced very highly. So... So their price was extremely high.

[6:32] Chris: And in European countries, the interest rates went negative for a period of time. And so bonds as an asset class were very richly valued. Now, here we are a few years later. And on the long bonds, those are down. They've lost as much as half of their value from those highly priced areas we saw just a few years ago. And so the prices now, I think you could say, are at least somewhat fairly valued based on the longer term valuations. Now, we know from all asset classes that trying to come up with expectations over the next year, two years, six months, two weeks, based on current valuations. Is a fool's errand. Valuations do not give you a timing tool in the short run. They tend to work out a little bit over the longer term. And if that's the case, usually with bonds, the way you would think about that is typically the current yield. You take that current yield, and then you look at the duration of the bond that you're investing in.

[7:51] Chris: That's going to roughly give you likely what you're expected to to receive if you hold that bond from the time going in at that current yield to the duration of that bond. So let's just say it's a five-year duration as a simple example, and it's got a 6% yield. Well, very likely that over that five-year period, you're going to get a 6% yield. Not guaranteed, of course. It's going to wiggle in the meantime, but roughly that's what you should expect as a going forward expectation in the bond market. So bonds, it's been a painful return to the average yield, but we're kind of back to normal, where you look at that average over 1976 to present compared to where we're at today, and we're kind of back to a more normal historical average.

[8:49] Dano: Before you get off this here, Chris, can you define for me what a lost decade means? Because we mentioned that in our open.

[8:57] Chris: Yeah, well, we'll take a look at what it means in a couple of slides here. But essentially, when any asset class gets priced highly compared to where it's been relative to its history, you have the distinct possibility that you can own that asset over a 10-year period, a decade, and not have any return. That's a long time. People have a tough time holding assets for that long. And so the bond market has just gone through a lost decade in the bond market, so in the U. S. Bond market. Now, where are we today? Well, this was striking. If you look at the 10-year bond yield, which is kind of the common bond yield to look at, the developed world in black, so it's not just in the U. S. The interest rates have been going up. This is symptomatic across the developed economies. We are roughly matching the yields on the emerging Markets when you include China. If you take China out, then that is not the case. But China's bond yields pull that emerging Markets yield down. So developed Markets at close to parity in terms of yield with the emerging Markets, which we have not, to my knowledge, seen before.

[10:28] Chris: So that's interesting. Now this from Charlie Biello showing the annualized total returns by decade. So here's your lost decade. This is according to the S&P Dow Jones from 1930 to 2026. And if you look at the 10-year treasury bond, these are annualized numbers over those decades. So if you look at the 1950s, we got close to having a lost decade, so a decade of... No returns, but we eked out 0.8%. Whereas from 2020 so far to 2026, if you're looking back over the last 10 years, annualized, we're at negative 1.3. So there's a little bit of time left, obviously, in this decade. But if you were going back to 2016 from here, it would be a lost decade in the 10-year treasury bond, kind of the most widely held. This from Jim Bianco, just showing what that looks like on a long, long term. So this is going back to 1793.

[11:39] Dano: He says, That might be your deepest poll ever.

[11:45] Chris: Yeah, going back quite a while. Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. So thank you, Ed. That's quite the chart. Really cool. So the past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Jim Bianco says bonds were the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. And so if you look at it over that long term, and Dan, we've been talking about that period in the 1870s when the railroad buildout was happening.

[12:27] Dano: I was just Googling that. I was like, when was the railroad boom?

[12:33] Chris: Yeah. So finish that book. Great book. I highly recommend it for those that might be interested in that. There were some really striking similarities to where we're at today. Not only the kind of a massive amount of money that is going into one industry at the time, obviously railroads were going to change the world. All kinds of fraud was happening. I mean, they were selling. You know, railroads were going to go from here to there. Sometimes they didn't even exist. And so all kinds of money piling into these areas. But one of the things I thought was interesting was that at that time we were on a gold and silver standard monetary standard, globally and the gold and silver supply exploded, in the, I think it was the 1850s or 1860s. So leading up to the 1870s, there was an explosion. Explosion in the supply of gold and silver from discovering new mines. So that increased the money supply dramatically. Does that ring a bell to what happened in COVID and in 2020? It sounds very similar, right? So we were on a gold standard at that time. So it led to a massive growth in the economy. Well, once all this investment started happening, new tech... Going to change the world, did change the world, but tons of fraud, higher prices, etc., etc.

[14:02] Chris: The market's concentration in the railroads reached over 60%. Today, we're at about 40% in AI, which kind of matches previous tech-related concentrations and bubbles in the Markets. But once that popped in. There was a massive deflation, not inflation, deflation. And guess what everybody wanted to hold at that time? Bonds. And not railroad bonds, because a lot of those went bust, but bonds, government bonds, were something that everybody wanted to hold. So who knows what will happen moving forward, but just thought that was interesting. Anyway, highly recommend the book.

[14:54] Dano: And it's fascinating. I want to touch back on one thing because we're talking about the lost decade. You're talking about the value of a bond when it comes to maturity, it's gained nothing, right? So my question for you is, if the bond is paying a coupon and your portfolio is constructed around that coupon being a part of it, is it really a lost decade?

[15:22] Chris: Yeah, these charts that we're looking at would include the total return. That coupon included.

[15:30] Dano: Okay.

[15:31] Chris: Which is why it's a little more padded now because let's say you've got that five-year bond, that five-year duration bond that's paying that 6% coupon. Well, if interest rates go up another 1%, that should reduce the value of the bond by roughly its duration. So in that example, that would reduce the value of that bond by 5%. Well, you're getting a 6% coupon, so your total return is 1%. So essentially, when that bond has that coupon as a cushion now, it can absorb a higher increase in the rate of interest rates. Now, that wasn't the case in 2020 because if you had that five-year bond, which was basically paying nothing, and you lose 5%, well, you have a negative return. But now that you've got the cushion on that bond, the increases in rates from here do not have as big of an impact as they did back then. The convexity is different. Now, what has been driving the rates higher is not only inflation expectations, but growth. This week we got the ISM services PMI number. Anything over 50 is considered to be expansionary. And so we've got an expansion in the services sector.

[17:13] Chris: And you can see this over the longer term. I mean, it's not like coming out of the pandemic expansion, but there is strong growth there. You've got... A very high demand for IPOs coming to the market. This is the U. S. Equity issuance and retirement. So this is companies that are issuing stock versus companies that are buying back stock. So this is not only IPOs, but existing companies that are issuing new stock. So they're trying to raise capital. And so there's more of a demand for capital. Those are driving interest rates higher. You've got the top five investors or the top five companies by market cap that are putting money into the infrastructure. Let me just read this from Jason Furman. He's an economist and he says, in 2025, just five companies, which was Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle were responsible for 37% of the you global capex of the top 100 listed non-financial companies the last time investment was that concentrated was in the early 1970s when at&t reigned supreme all bell right so so you've got those those AI scalers that are building out at a pretty fantastic pace relative to our recent history which is also a demand for money driving those interest rates higher.

[18:55] Chris: Now, this one surprised me. This is from Jim Bianco. He says, if you combined the different sources of credit, total credit in the United States, that reached 370% of GDP in Q2 of 2026, which is effectively the same as it was 20 years ago. 368% in Q3 of 2026. So we spent a lot of time talking about the debt. Well, actually, let me just finish Jim's thought here. Jim Bianco says, there's been no net addition to overall debt levels relative to GDP in the last 20 years. What's changed is who is borrowing and who's deleveraging. And what he means by that is that it's gone from the private sector are mostly individuals, to the public sector and to the corporate sector in terms of the borrowing. But the overall debt between the three entities hasn't really changed in the last 20 years. And that was a surprise to me. So interest rates are being driven higher by many things, but maybe the overall debt is not one. But the fact that a lot of that debt is concentrated in the government sector is what's driving the treasury rates, which kind of drives the cost of money across the board.

[20:28] Chris: So interest rates moving up, you know, bonds have seen. Massive correction in their price over the last few years. Well, where does that leave things with the equity market? What can that teach us about the possibilities of the equity market moving forward? This is one valuation measure of the US stock market called the Shiller price to earnings ratio. And Shiller uses a 10-year smooth earnings to kind of take out some of the noise. With that measure. And you can see here, the median is right around 16 to 17 price to earnings over the longer term. And we're currently at 41. And that's only been exceeded one time, which was December of 99, the dot-com bubble at 44. So this is just one valuation measure. You can use lots of different ones, but kind of any one that you look at, the stock market is and has been for a very long time, a elevated relative to his, its historical valuation measures. And I say a long time, because if you look at like 2016, when the bond market started selling off, this CAPE ratio was above where it had been most of history. So with Markets, you never know what will happen. You, you, you can never say never, right? Because this could be on its way to 100 for all we know, right? But when you look at the odds, you know, like, hey, are we expensive or are we cheap?

[22:14] Chris: We're expensive relative to where we've been moving forward. So what does that mean? Well, the potential for a lost decade. And this, I think, illustration from theory, from Harvey is really... Instructive because it shows the three lost decades that we kind of look back at in the stock market and how long those lasted. So the one we talk about the most is the 2000 decade. That was in the blue here. So you can see that one was especially brutal because we kind of got back to even and then we went into the great financial crisis. So we had another... That was a lost decade with two major drops in the stock market to have to live through. But in terms of duration, the time that it took to recover, that's nothing compared to where we were in the 1960s. And at the end of 1968, if you look at the returns of the S&P 500, and this is notably after inflation, there was a very long period of time that it took to get back to even. If you take into account inflation, it was almost 25 years, roughly 23 based on this chart. And then you look at the granddaddy of them all, Japan, that did hit a CAPE ratio close to 100 at their peak at the end of 1989.

[23:50] Chris: That was the last three plus decades, almost four. So almost 35 years for that. Market to get back to even. So this is, in my mind, the argument for diversification in the Markets. And if you're not going to diversify, you do have to look at the equity market as, you know, while you can't time based on valuation in the short term, you do have to look at how long might I have to hold in order to be up on this bet. In the market, right? Because people that bought at the peak of 19 at 1999, they if they held that whole time in the stock market, you've done well, even on a on an annualized basis, going back, you know, that 27 years, you've done okay. Now, because you've held that long period of time. Now, I would argue there's probably next to nobody who actually did buy at the peak and hold that entire time. I think that's That's asking a lot of us as humans, but let's just say you did. You did all right. This from Colin Roche, he says, I've found that valuations are a terrible timing tool, but they're a very useful sequence of returns risk tool.

[25:18] Chris: Valuations don't tell you when to buy and sell. They inform you how long you might need to be patient with an asset. The higher the valuation, the more patient you need to be because the sequence risk is potentially higher. This matters tremendously for sound financial planning and portfolio construction. So said another way, if you're a retiree or going to soon be a retiree, you might not be able to hold on to that asset and be as patient as you need to be with that asset based on where valuations are today. Because if you look at over the longer term, what this is showing is the correlation of the Cape. And the subsequent returns, you can see in order to be considered fairly significant on the correlations, you want it to be about 0.7 or higher. And look, even out to seven years, you don't get over that 0.7. Even at seven years, it's only about 0.43. You have to go out to that 10-year period to say, okay, it's pretty highly correlated with what the what the returns are over the next decade.

[26:35] Chris: So market's doing great. Valuations are high. Valuations have been high for almost 10 years now. Does that mean, you know, sort of like you've domesticated a tiger and you don't ever have to worry about it attacking you again? I don't know. I'm not comfortable making that bet personally. I'm not comfortable. Domesticating a tiger. Yeah.

[27:03] Dano: Yeah, I think it's, I mean, we're putting it all out there, and this could be an episode that we could look back on in four months, four weeks, four days, and say, you know, it's all right there. You're seeing Schiller Cape up near 40. You're seeing, we talked about the historical example with railroads and bonds. Would bonds be a safe place to see? Quote safe, feeling more safer place to be, and yet hitting all time highs still, you know, so it feels like it's when is when is it going to end? And I think the question that you're posing to our clients, prospective clients to investors is, ask yourself if you were to experience just as bonds have experienced a lost decade, the equities, the stocks that you're sitting on, even the ones that have appreciated a lot, and they're your favorite, you have an emotional attachment to them. If they experienced a lost decade, you know, would you be able to sustain that? Would you be able to withstand that type of a hit based on other aspects of your portfolio and your financial needs?

[28:12] Chris: Well, well said. Well said. And this chart is saying, like, do you have that capacity? Right. You know, some do. Some do. Some can say, look, if I lose a decade, I'll be fine. I can hold on to it longer. In fact, it's a great buying opportunity for me. But not everybody does have that capacity. I think that's what's important to consider. And a lot of people kind of give themselves a false comfort of like, well, I'll know when to get out. I'll see it coming. And especially this market, man, if there's anything to learn from this market over the last five years or so, if there's anything that has taught you, it's that A lot of the stuff that has quote unquote worked in the past to look at, whether it's the yield curve inversions, the LEIs, the recession indicators, et cetera, et cetera. Like literally everything that every alarm bell that could have gone off and said probably time to trim your equity positions has gone off and then been just completely steamrolled by the market. So if you think you've got some crystal ball trigger that you're going to look at and go, oh. Well, there it is. There's my sign to get out. And here's another one, right? This is from August 24th, so the week of the Jackson Hole meeting. A lot of the market has really been in correction mode since then. This is the different sectors of the market.

[29:42] Chris: And you can see that really technology in dark blue there has been holding up the index as a whole, which is the gray. Now, prior to that. Technology was really struggling this year. The mags were really having a struggle. So timing these things is difficult to say the least. The drawdowns are, even though they feel sort of extreme in the time, these are percent off highs. So you can see that while since the month of September, a lot of these different sectors are close to 10% off their highs, that's also sort of normal. We saw that in July. We saw that in March. So that's happened many, many times. So not necessarily any information from those sell-offs. So my point is that you never know, like, is this just a blip, right? Like banks, banks are way off their high. And the old adage is that the inside of the stock market is the best economist. And if banks are not doing well, then that's probably not great for the economy and the Markets.

[30:58] Chris: Well, you know, that's... That was happening in 2023. We got the bank blowups and the market just went powering on right straight through that. So, you know, having a clear symbol sign on when it's time to get out, is not gonna, is not gonna happen. So you can't rely on that as an investor. All right, Dan, you had a couple of slides in here.

[31:28] Dano: It looks like a couple of things came across my I was going to say my desk, but in fact, they came across my phone. I noticed things that are sort of market adjacent or economy adjacent, and they catch my eye. Chris, are you familiar with the idea of dynamic pricing in grocery stores?

[31:49] Chris: I think I saw, was it McDonald's that was going to start implementing that as well?

[31:55] Dano: Yes.

[31:56] Chris: I think it was McDonald's, yeah.

[31:58] Dano: So there's a couple different things at play here. One is dynamic pricing based on time of day, which is what fast food would love to do. Fast food would love to charge even a quarter more at dinnertime and lunchtime. Or maybe they have lower prices at downtime, so then you go then, whatever. That's one flavor of it. Another particularly evil flavor of it is personalized pricing, which you already know exists for Amazon. So if you go to Amazon or if you go to buy a flight, everyone's really familiar with flights. The price for Chris Sipes to buy a plane ticket is different than the price for Dan O'Weir. And that's based on their algorithm and a lot of different things. And you would presume that perhaps, you know, the wealthier people might actually get the higher prices. But in fact, sometimes they get the lower prices because they're trying to get you to buy more. But anyways, Governor Maryland. Has proposed a new law to prevent instant grocery price changes in stores. So now they're thinking about bringing this to grocery stores in that if you and I go to the grocery store, Chris, you might pay a different price for milk based on who you are as a person, your credit score, for example, versus me or somebody else. So for an article from CBS News, one of Maryland's new laws prohibits dynamic real-time and surveillance data-driven grocery store pricing. It covers food retailers as well as third-party delivery service providers. The law aims to protect consumers from ever-changing grocery prices at a time of rising inflation across numerous products, including food.

[33:32] Dano: Dynamic pricing allows stores to potentially change the cost of items based on demand, weather, time of day, or customer data. It follows changes in the industry that have led several large retailers to increase the use of electronic shelf labels that can change instant. They can instantly change item prices sometimes throughout the day. So keep an eye on that as you're at the grocery store. If you start to see a digital price tag instead of a paper one, or worse, just a barcode, then that may be coming to a grocery store near you. Safe way. Do the right thing. The second one I wanted to show was, were you aware, Chris, that there was a DJ set at the New York Stock Exchange last month?

[34:17] Chris: I did see that. Yeah. Add it to the list, Dan, of things you don't see at stock market bottoms.

[34:26] Dano: Right. And so we didn't have a chance to talk about this when it happened. But on the one hand, I love unique events. And that actually sounds like kind of a cool thing to go to. On the other hand, man, it just feels like they were pre-filming footage for the documentary on the sign of the times of the absolute. Top of tops that they had a you know it feels like the fall of rome or something you know it's like just like those neighbors things are so so euphoric that they had a dj set in there so who knows could be nothing but thought that was kind of interesting Also wanted to let our listeners know, listeners and viewers know, we dropped a new episode of our sister podcast, It's All Money, this week. You can find that on our YouTube channel. It's also audio only is linked up at SonomaWealth. Com if you want to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Asking the question, 62 or 70 or somewhere in between, when are you taking Social Security? When does it make sense? Is early a good idea? Is later a better idea? How long are you planning on living? And will it actually even be there when you take it? That episode is live now. Again, it's on YouTube. If you're watching us here on YouTube, on our Sonoma Wealth Advisors YouTube channel, you can also find it linked up at sonomawalth.com. So I wanted to get that one out there and shout out to our advisor, Clay Dunkel, who is on the episode. And Chris, do you have a, am I seeing another slide here or are we all wrapped up?

[35:57] Chris: Yeah, we're going to just run through the different asset classes this week. No candles. Just simple moving averages to see where we are on the trends. And we're starting out with the mighty S&P 500, America's pension plan. Joking, Joking. For the transcript, that is not the actual case for compliance reasons, of course. Now, but you can see that the trend, despite the little pullback we saw in September, man Looking strong in the S&P above its 50-day, way above its 200-day. No signs of weakness in the mighty S&P right now. The Russell 2000, the small cap companies, on the other hand, seeing a little more struggle with those higher interest rates. But if they're going to have a turnaround, if we're going to start heading the other direction, now is the time. Running into the 200-day moving average. So you would expect that if that strength is going to return, we're going to see that here soon in the small caps, the Russell 2000.

[37:12] Chris: Developed Markets, same kind of deal. We were on a strong path up into the right in the developed Markets. They've also seen a sell-off down to the 200-day moving average. If you're going to see a turnaround, you'd likely start to see it here soon. For the developed, now it's considered much of Europe and Japan in the developed Markets, Canada, etc. But this would be non-US but non-emerging Markets considered emerging Markets. Speaking of the emerging Markets, they are still continuing to show a lot of strength. One of the stories this year has been just how much of the emerging Markets is actually tied to technology now and AI. And the build out around technology and AI. It's no longer the emerging Markets of the 2000s where primarily commodities were the main product. Now you've got finished products and a lot of those finished products are tech related. And so emerging Markets continue to outpace the US again this year and showing a lot of strength. And I think on the technicals, still looking pretty strong. Then we look at the bond market. We're in all kinds of doldrums when you look at the ag. This is kind of the standard index for the US bond market. This is medium term in terms of the loans. I believe the ag duration's right around five to seven years, so not long term, not short turn.

[38:50] Chris: You know, just a lot of technical damage. When it comes to that. We've got the 50-day below the 200-day, so a confirmed downtrend. But this is looking over the last three years, and really it's just more of the same for bondholders. While we're in a downtrend, I wouldn't say that it's anything extreme compared to what we've witnessed over the last three to five years in the bond market. Same thing with the long-term bonds. They are plumbing new lows in the TLT. Here, a 50-day moving average, also below the 200-day. No signs of turnarounds there. The interest rates have continued to chug higher this week and just really washed out in the long-term bonds. The TLT, the durations, I believe around 20 on that one. So that's the longer-term bonds. So continuing pain in the long bonds for of for fixed income investors. Gold, gold is a interesting one because we saw the... Sell-off once Warsh was appointed, or I guess once they started saying that Warsh might be appointed to head the Fed. And we got the main sell-off in coming into the year after a really strong year in 2026 and 2025.

[40:21] Chris: And we've kind of been a little bit signs of life halfway through 2026 sell off again Gold doesn't seem to know where it's going right now. We ended the day strong today, so it was a strong week for gold. But we do have the 50-day below the 200-day kind of trending sideways, not heading downward in a relative fashion, but also not heading upward. So gold is kind of treading water at the moment. Bitcoin, on the other hand, we did get the golden cross there. You potential signs of life in the Bitcoin market where we get the 50-day crossing above the 200-day moving average, what they call the golden cross, because typically that is a sign of an uptrend starting to form. So that's good news for Bitcoin investors. And who knows if we see a lost decade in the Bitcoin market anytime soon. But we've definitely seen a loss several years in the Bitcoin market. So it would be nice to start to see some returns there for investors. Now, if we, let's see here. Did we lose the last one? Maybe the last one didn't show up.

[41:50] Chris: Slide 27. Let's see. It's got the. The 10-year and the 30-year treasury on it. And really the point of this chart is just to show the trend over the last, coming into five years, so from 2022 till today. And it's no surprise to anybody, interest rates have been up. Now they've been, there's been some noise there. We've just recently kind of... Revisited where we were at the end of 2023. So the bond investor kind of is used to this range, but notably we broke above that range. It looks like in sort of a authoritative way. So we'll see if that trend is going to continue higher in interest rates. Nobody knows where that line is, where it's like, wow, that's too much, where the equity market starts to go. This is a lot of pressure in the financial system for us. That has not been reached yet, but interest rates here in the mid to high 5% range on the 10 and 30-year treasuries. That trend seems to be up and intact at the moment. The question was, did bonds hit a bottom? Boy, I don't know.

[43:24] Chris: Not a sign of it yet. Not a sign of it yet. But, you know, given where we're at, that may not be like such a painful thing to hold them moving forward. We'll see.

[43:39] Dano: Thank you so much for checking out our show. This has been On the Markets from Fermata Advisors. Our brands include Sonoma Wealth Advisors. That's private wealth. Fermata 401k. Fermata Tax. You can learn more about us. At SonomaWealth. Com. And you'll see in just a moment, the other websites and the other brands. My name is Dan O'Weir. I'm the marketing director. Thank you very much for your time to check out the show. We always really appreciate everyone who leans in and takes the education that we're giving because that's what we're trying to share. It's free education, our opinion for informational purposes only. If you have found value in this show, we ask if you feel like it, we'd love a subscription. Hit subscribe. Hit that subscribe button, hit the bell so you get notifications about future episodes on YouTube or subscribe on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. And you can even leave a review if you feel so inclined of any number of stars that you feel like. Thanks so much for checking out our show. And for myself, for Darren Blonsky, and for Chris Sipes, we will see you next week on The Markets.

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